Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Trying to reason with hurricane season

Forgive me for this rant, but those of you who have lived in a hurricane zone will understand. First, some mood music...

Squalls out on the gulf stream, big storms comin' soon
I passed out in my hammock, God I slept 'till way past noon
Stood up and tried to focus
I hoped I wouldn't have to look far
I knew I could use a Bloody Mary
So I stumbled next door to the bar

Each year we're subjected to continual predictions about the storm season. First they predict, then they re-predict, and then they re-predict yet again -- months before tropical conditions could possibly spawn the first storm.

The "official'' Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November, and by December forecasters already are chiming in with their early takes on the next summer's storm activity. This gives us plenty of time to run out and buy plywood, extra batteries and water.

I mention this today because headlines in the local papers indicate that the "experts'' at Colorado State University (where else would you go for accurate hurricane information?) have already backed off their original prediction from last December. Now they're predicting 12 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes this season, down slightly from their original position.

It gets really comical when in midseason, if storm activity is either higher or lower than predicted, the experts will change their predictions to match what is happening in the Atlantic. To use a baseball analogy, this is like making the 2008 preseason prediction that the Tampa Bay Rays would finish last in their division, then after they became contenders, re-predict they'll finish higher than last place.

And now I must confess, I could use some rest
I can't run at this pace very long
Yes it's quite insane, I think it hurts my brain
But it cleans me out and then I can go on

I think I could use that Bloody Mary.

1 comment:

  1. a tribute to Jimmy Buffet:

    (tune of Margaritaville)
    Lying on my back,
    scratching my nutsack ...

    that's all i got.